![]() In this article, we discuss the barriers to scaling up cell manufacturing and what companies and governments can do to succeed in this space. Meanwhile, governments can play an important role in facilitating industry growth in their respective countries, particularly through direct financial incentives but also by encouraging the development of local battery ecosystems. Winning companies will be those that act in the next few years. ![]() This consolidation will be mostly driven by the importance of scale to reduce production costs and to compete on performance. Based on past developments in comparable industries, such as wind-turbine manufacturing and in the tier-one automotive supplier industry, we believe the market will likely consolidate to about ten to 15 global cell-manufacturing players. However, time is running out to compete in battery-cell manufacturing, the part of the value chain that holds most of the value-creation and macroeconomic opportunities. By contrast, the battery value chain is well established in China, the world’s biggest market for EVs, and South Korea. The biggest opportunities may be in Europe and North America, which have relatively immature markets but are likely to be centers of substantial future growth in EVs. This comes at a time when the automotive industry’s move to EVs has raised fears of lost jobs in car manufacturing and in the production of internal-combustion engines. As a result, battery manufacturing could generate significant growth in GDP, especially if an ecosystem of related industries develops. ![]() A similar number of jobs could be added indirectly through suppliers and construction as well as through the food and basic-services sectors. We estimate that a new battery-manufacturing plant with a total capacity of 30 to 40 gigawatt hours (GWh) per year could directly create as many as 3,200 jobs (exhibit). The rapid increase in demand would lead to the development of additional capacity along the entire value chain. That could happen if the industry follows the path of other renewable technologies such as solar and wind and enters a virtuous cycle in which increased scale drives down costs, which would accelerate growth in the market for electric vehicles (EVs). There is also a realistic scenario in which the market accelerates and hits $410 billion by 2030. We forecast that the market for battery cells will grow, on average, by more than 20 percent per year until 2030, reaching at least $360 billion globally. Battery use is more than an opportunity to eliminate vehicular CO 2 and NO 2 emissions in a world grappling with climate change scaling up production of battery-cell manufacturing capacity also offers significant value-creation opportunities for manufacturers, creates new jobs that pay well, and supports national economic growth. Batteries are emerging as a critical ingredient in the transition to a more sustainable future because of their role in electrifying transportation and balancing power grids. ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |